Kakaretso ea beke:
Lintlha-khōlō tse kholo: Li Keqiang o ile a etella pele Symposium mabapi le phokotso ea lekhetho le ho fokotsa litefiso;Lekala la Khoebo le mafapha a mang a 22 le ntšitse "leano la lilemo tse hlano" bakeng sa nts'etsopele ea khoebo ea malapeng;Ho na le khatello e kholo ea tlase moruong le maano a matla a fanoa qetellong ea selemo;Ka December, palo ea mesebetsi e mecha e sa amaneng le temo United States e bile 199000, e tlaase ka ho fetisisa ho tloha ka January 2021;Palo ea likopo tsa pele tsa ho hloka mosebetsi United States bekeng ena e ne e phahame ho feta kamoo ho neng ho lebelletsoe.
Ho latela lintlha: mabapi le lichelete, banka e bohareng e khutlisitse li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 660 ka beke;Sekhahla sa ts'ebetso ea libono tse 247 tsa ho phatloha tse hlahlobiloeng ke Mysteel e eketsehile ka 5.9%, 'me tekanyo ea ts'ebetso ea limela tse 110 tsa ho hlatsoa mashala Chaena e theohile ho ea tlase ho 70%;Har'a beke, litheko tsa tšepe, mashala a matla le rebar li ile tsa phahama;Litheko tsa koporo ea electrolytic, samente le konkreite li ile tsa theoha;Ka karolelano thekiso ea letsatsi le letsatsi ea likoloi tsa baeti ka beke e ne e le 109000, e theohile ka 9%;BDI e nyolohile ka 3.6%.
Mmaraka oa lichelete: litheko tsa bokamoso ba thepa e kholo li ile tsa phahama bekeng ena;Har'a limmaraka tsa lefats'e, 'maraka oa lichelete oa Chaena le oa US o ile oa theoha haholo, ha 'maraka oa Europe o ile oa phahama;Index ea lidolara tsa Amerika e ne e le 95.75, e theohile ka 0.25%.
1. Lintlha-khōlō tsa Macro
(1) Tsepamiso ea sebaka se chesang
◎ Tonakholo Li Keqiang e bile molula-setulo oa simposiamo mabapi le phokotso ea lekhetho le phokotso ea litefiso.Li Keqiang o boletse hore ha re tobane le khatello e ncha e theohileng moruong, re lokela ho tsoela pele ho etsa mosebetsi o motle "botsitseng bo ts'eletseng" le "tiisetso tse ts'eletseng", le ho kenya ts'ebetso e kholo ea ho fokotsa lekhetho le ho fokotsa litefiso ho latela litlhoko tsa lithuto tsa mebaraka, molemong oa ho netefatsa qalo e tsitsitseng ea moruo kotareng ea pele le ho tsitsisa 'maraka oa moruo o moholo.
◎ Lekala la Khoebo le mafapha a mang a 22 a fane ka "leano la lilemo tse hlano" bakeng sa nts'etsopele ea khoebo ea malapeng.Ka 2025, kakaretso ea thekiso ea thekiso ea thepa ea sechaba e tla fihla ho li-yuan tse libilione tse 50;Boleng bo ekelitsoeng ba thekiso e kholo le ea mabenkele, bolulo le phepelo e fihlile ho li-yuan tse libilione tse 15.7;Lithekiso tsa mabenkele li fihlile ho li-yuan tse libilione tse 17.Leanong la bo-14 la lilemo tse hlano, re tla eketsa kholiso le ts'ebeliso ea likoloi tse ncha tsa motlakase le ho nts'etsapele 'maraka oa morao-rao oa likoloi.
◎ ka la 7 Pherekhong, People's Daily e phatlalalitse sengoloa ke Ofisi ea Lipatlisiso ea Policy ea Khomishene ea Naha ea Ntšetso-pele le Liphetoho, e supang hore kholo e tsitsitseng e lokela ho behoa maemong a hlahelletseng le ho boloka tikoloho e tsitsitseng le e phetseng hantle ea moruo.Re tla hokahanya thibelo le taolo ea seoa le nts'etsopele ea moruo le sechaba, ho tsoela pele ho kenya ts'ebetsong leano le sebetsang la lichelete le leano le bohlale la lichelete, 'me re kopanye maano a ho laola le ho thibela macro-control.
◎ ka December 2021, PMI ea tlhahiso ea Caixin China e tlalehile 50.9, ho nyoloha ka liphesente tse 1.0 ho tloha ka November, e phahameng ka ho fetisisa ho tloha ka July 2021. PMI ea indasteri ea tšebeletso ea Caixin ka December e ne e le 53.1, e lebelletsoeng ho ba 51.7, ka boleng ba pele ba 52.1.China's Caixin comprehensive PMI ka December e ne e le 53, ka boleng ba pele ba 51.2.
Hona joale, ho na le khatello e kholo ea ho theoha moruong.E le ho arabela hantle, maano a ile a ntšoa ka matla bofelong ba selemo.Ntlha ea pele, leano la ho atolosa tlhokahalo ea malapeng le ntse le hlaka butle-butle.Tlas'a tšusumetso e hararo ea tlhokahalo e ntseng e fokotseha, ts'oaetso ea phepelo le tebello e fokolisang, moruo o tobane le khatello e tlase nakong e khuts'oane.Ha ho nahanoa hore tšebeliso ke eona ntho e ka sehloohong e tsamaisang chelete (investment is the key marginal determinant), ho hlakile hore leano lena le ke ke la ba sieo.Ho tloha boemong ba hona joale, tšebeliso ea likoloi, lisebelisoa tsa ntlo, thepa ea ka tlung le mokhabiso oa ntlo, tse ikarabellang bakeng sa karolo e kholo, e tla ba sepheo sa ho susumetsa.Malebana le dipeeletso, mafaratlhatlha a mašwa e setse e le one moneelo wa togamaano.Empa ka kakaretso, sepheo sa mantlha se sebelisetsoang ho thibela ho putlama ha meaho e ntse e le meaho ea setso
◎ ho ea ka boitsebiso bo fanoeng ke Lefapha la Basebetsi la United States, palo ea mesebetsi e mecha e seng ea temo United States ka December 2021 e ne e le 199000, e ka tlaase ho 400000 e lebeletsoeng, e tlaase ka ho fetisisa ho tloha ka January 2021;Sekhahla sa tlhokeho ea mesebetsi e ne e le 3.9%, e betere ho feta maraka a lebelletsoeng 4.1%.Bahlahlobisisi ba lumela hore le hoja sekhahla sa ho hloka mosebetsi sa US se theohile khoeli le khoeli ka December selemong se fetileng, lintlha tse ncha tsa mosebetsi ha li ntle.Khaello ea basebetsi e ntse e fetoha tšitiso e kholo kholong ea mesebetsi, 'me kamano lipakeng tsa phepelo le tlhoko 'marakeng oa basebetsi oa US e ntse e mpefala le ho feta.
◎ ho tloha ka la 1 Pherekhong, palo ea likopo tsa pele tsa melemo ea ho hloka mosebetsi bekeng e ne e le 207000, 'me ho lebelletsoe hore 195000. Leha palo ea likopo tsa pele tsa melemo ea ho hloka mosebetsi e eketsehile ha e bapisoa le bekeng e fetileng, e se e le haufi le 50- selemo se le tlase libekeng tsa morao tjena, ka lebaka la hore k'hamphani e boloka basebetsi ba eona ba teng tlas'a boemo bo akaretsang ba khaello ea basebetsi le ho tlohela mosebetsi.Leha ho le joalo, ha likolo le likhoebo li qala ho koaloa, ho ata ha Omicron ho ile ha boela ha tsosa matšoenyeho a batho ka moruo.
(2) Kakaretso ea litaba tsa bohlokoa
◎ Tonakholo Li Keqiang o ile a etella pele kopano ea phethahatso ea Lekhotla la Naha ho sebelisa mehato ea ho kenya tšebetsong ka botlalo tsamaiso ea lethathamo la litaba tsa laesense ea tsamaiso, ho tiisa tšebetso ea matla le ho tsoela likhoebo le batho molemo haholo.Re tla kenya tshebetsong tsamaiso e kgethehileng ya kotsi ya mekitlane ya dikgwebo mme re kgothaletse tsamaiso e hlokang leeme le e sebetsang hantle.
◎ He Lifeng, motsamaisi oa Khomishene ea Nts'etsopele ea Naha le Phetoho, o ngotse hore re lokela ho kenya tšebetsong moralo oa leano la ho holisa tlhoko ea lehae le moralo oa ts'ebetsong oa moralo oa lilemo tse hlano, ho potlakisa tlhahiso le ts'ebeliso ea litlamo tse khethehileng tsa mebuso ea lehae. , le ho ntšetsa pele matsete a litšebeletso tsa motheo ka mokhoa o itekanetseng.
◎ ho latela lintlha tsa banka e bohareng, ka December 2021, banka e bohareng e ile ea etsa lits'ebeletso tsa likalimo tsa nako e mahareng bakeng sa litsi tsa lichelete, tse etsang li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 500, ka nako ea selemo le phaello ea 2.95%.Tekanyo ea meaho ea mekoloto ea nako e mahareng qetellong ea nako e ne e le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 4550.
◎ Ofisi ea Lekhotla la Naha e hatisitse le ho aba moralo oa kakaretso bakeng sa teko ea phetoho e felletseng ea kabo ea lintlha tse shebaneng le mebaraka, e lumellang phetoho ea sepheo sa mobu oa kaho o kopaneng oa setoko ho latela morero o tla rekisoa 'marakeng. motheo oa matšeliso a boithaopo ho ea ka molao.Ka 2023, ikitlaelletsa ho fihlela katleho ea bohlokoa likhokahanong tsa mantlha tsa kabo e shebaneng le mebaraka ea lintlha tse kang mobu, basebetsi, chelete le theknoloji.
◎ ka la 1 Pherekhong 2022, RCEP e ile ea qala ho sebetsa, ’me linaha tse 10, ho akarelletsa le Chaena, li ile tsa qala ka molao ho phethahatsa boitlamo ba tsona, e leng se ileng sa tšoaea ho qaleha ha sebaka se seholohali sa khoebo e lokolohileng lefatšeng le qalo e ntle ea moruo oa Chaena.Har'a tsona, Chaena le Japane li thehile likamano tsa khoebo e lokolohileng pakeng tsa linaha tse peli lekgetlo la pele, tsa fihlella ditokisetso tsa ditumellano tsa ditefiso tsa dinaha tse pedi, mme tsa fihlella katleho ya nalane.
◎ CITIC Securities e entse litebello tse leshome bakeng sa pholisi ea kholo e tsitsitseng, e re halofo ea pele ea 2022 e tla ba nako ea ho fokotsa sekhahla sa phaello.Ho lebeletsoe hore likhahla tsa nako e khuts'oane, tse mahareng le tse telele tsa lichelete li tla fokotsoa.Sekhahla sa mor'a matsatsi a 7, sekhahla sa tsoala sa MLF sa selemo se le seng, sekhahla sa tsoala sa selemo se le 1 le lilemo tse 5 sa LPR se tla fokotsoa ka 5 BP ka nako e ts'oanang, ho ea ho 2.15% / 2.90% / 3.75% / 4.60% ka ho latellana. , ka katleho ho fokotsa litšenyehelo tsa lichelete tsa moruo oa sebele.
◎ re lebeletse tsoelo-pele ea moruo ka 2022, litsebi tse ka sehloohong tsa moruo tsa litsi tse 37 tsa lehae ka kakaretso li lumela hore ho na le litšusumetso tse tharo tse ka sehloohong tsa ho khothalletsa kholo ea moruo: ea pele, matsete a kaho ea mekhoa ea motheo e lebelletsoe ho khutla;Ea bobeli, matsete a tlhahiso a lebelletsoe ho tsoela pele ho eketseha;Ntlha ea boraro, ho lebeletsoe hore tšebeliso e ntse e eketseha.
◎ Tlaleho ea pono ea moruo ea China ea 2022 e sa tsoa lokolloa ke litsi tse 'maloa tse tšehelitsoeng ka lichelete kantle ho naha e lumela hore tšebeliso ea China e tla hlaphoheloa butle-butle le hore thepa e romelloang kantle e tla lula e tiile.Boemong ba tšepo mabapi le moruo oa China, litsi tse tšehelitsoeng ka lichelete kantle ho naha li ntse li tsoela pele ho hlophisa thepa ea RMB, li lumela hore ho buloa ho tsoelang pele ha China ho ka tsoela pele ho hohela chelete e kenang kantle ho naha, hape ho na le menyetla ea matsete 'marakeng oa matsete oa China.
◎ Mosebetsi oa ADP United States o eketsehile ka 807000 ka December, keketseho e khōlō ka ho fetisisa ho tloha ka May 2021. Ho hakanngoa hore e tla eketseha ka 400000, ha e bapisoa le boleng ba pele ba 534000. Pejana, palo ea batho ba itokollang United States e fihlile tlalehong ea 4,5. milione ka November.
◎ ka Tšitoe 2021, US ism production PMI e theohetse ho 58.7, e tlase haholo ho tloha ka Pherekhong selemong se fetileng, mme e tlase ho feta litebello tsa litsebi tsa moruo, ka boleng ba pele ba 61.1.Lits'oants'o tse nyane li bonts'a hore tlhoko e tsitsitse, empa matšoao a nako le litheko li tlase.
◎ ho latela lintlha tsa Lefapha la Basebetsi la US, ka Pulungoana 2021, palo ea batho ba itokollang mosebetsing United States e fihlile rekotong ea limilione tse 4.5, mme palo ea likheo tsa mesebetsi e fokotsehile ho tloha ho limilione tse 11.1 tse ntlafalitsoeng ka Mphalane ho ea ho limilione tse 10.6, tse ntseng li le teng. e phahameng haholo hofeta boleng pele ho seoa.
◎ ka la 4 January nako ea sebaka seo, komiti ea leano la lichelete la Poland e phatlalalitse qeto ea eona ea ho eketsa phaello ea phaello ea Central Bank of Poland ka lintlha tse 50 ho ea ho 2.25%, e tla qala ho sebetsa ka January 5. Ena ke keketseho ea bone ea phaello ea phaello. Poland ka likhoeli tse ’nè, ’me banka e bohareng ea Poland e fetohile banka ea pele ea naha ho phatlalatsa keketseho ea sekhahla sa tsoala ka 2022.
◎ Lefapha la Lipalopalo la Jeremane: sekhahla sa inflation sa selemo le selemo Jeremane ka 2021 se nyolohetse ho 3.1%, se fihlile boemong bo phahameng ka ho fetisisa ho tloha ka 1993.
2. Ho latela data
(1) Lehlakore la Capital
(2) Lintlha tsa indasteri
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3. Kakaretso ea limmaraka tsa lichelete
Mabapi le bokamoso ba thepa, litheko tsa bokamoso ba thepa e kholo li ile tsa phahama bekeng eo, eo oli e tala e ileng ea phahama ka ho fetisisa, ea fihla ho 4.62%.Mabapi le limmaraka tsa lefats'e, 'maraka oa setoko oa China le li-stock tsa US li ile tsa oa, ha index ea lehakoe e theoha haholo, ea fihla ho 6.8%.Marakeng oa phapanyetsano ea kantle ho naha, index ea lidolara tsa Amerika e koetsoe ho 95,75, e theohile ka 0,25%.
4, Lintlha tsa bohlokoa tsa beke e tlang
(1) China e tla lokolla data ea December PPI le CPI
Nako: Laboraro (1 / 12)
Maikutlo: ho ea ka tlhophiso ea mosebetsi oa Ofisi ea Sechaba ea lipalo-palo, lintlha tsa CPI le PPI tsa December 2021 li tla lokolloa ka January 12. Litsebi li bolela esale pele hore ka lebaka la tšusumetso ea motheo le phello ea leano la lehae la ho netefatsa phepelo le theko e tsitsitseng, sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo sa CPI se ka theoha hanyane ho isa ho 2% ka Tšitoe 2021, sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo sa PPI se ka theoha hanyane ho isa ho 11%, mme sekhahla sa kholo ea GDP ea selemo le selemo se lebelletsoe ho feta 8%.Ho feta moo, kholo ea GDP kotareng ea pele ea 2022 e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho feta 5.3%.
(2) Lethathamo la lintlha tsa bohlokoa bekeng e tlang
Nako ea poso: Jan-10-2022